At least 200 secondary schools are at risk of closure after falling below minimum GCSE targets amid a toughening up of exams for 16-year-olds.
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| More schools could be at risk of closure because of a toughening up of GCSEs. |
Figures to be published next week are likely to show a decline in the number of pupils given good grades in tests for the second year running.
In 2012, some 69.4 per cent of GCSE papers were graded A* to C compared with 69.8 per cent a year earlier. It was the first drop in the qualification’s 25-year history.
In 2012, some 69.4 per cent of GCSE papers were graded A* to C compared with 69.8 per cent a year earlier. It was the first drop in the qualification’s 25-year history.
But it is believed that grades could fall further in 2013 following a dramatic overhaul of science exams.
New GCSE specifications were introduced to biology, chemistry, physics and combined science two years ago following complaints that previous exams were too easy. The first results will be released next week.
Ofqual, the qualifications watchdog, has already admitted that it is anticipating a drop in grades in this summer’s science tests.
With the sciences collectively accounting for around one-in-five of all GCSEs taken, the move is likely to depress the headline pass rate.
This is likely to place more schools at risk of closure or takeover under a Government policy that targets under-performing state comprehensives.
Currently, all schools are supposed to ensure that at least 40 per cent of pupils leave with five A* to C grades, including the core subjects of English and maths.
Last year, 195 schools were below the floor target and the number could exceed 200 this summer.
In a letter to schools setting out changes to science GCSEs, Ofqual said the qualifications were “designed to be more challenging because the previous syllabuses did not adequately test the subject content and were not sufficiently demanding”.
"Although we cannot be sure until results come in, we are expecting a small drop in achievements overall rather than anything more substantial,” the letter said.
"The picture may be different school by school."
A spokeswoman for the Department for Education said: "We want GCSEs to be high-quality, demanding qualifications comparable to those in the world's best-performing education systems.
"It is for Ofqual, the independent regulator, to ensure that standards are set appropriately in the awarding of GCSEs."
This is likely to place more schools at risk of closure or takeover under a Government policy that targets under-performing state comprehensives.
Currently, all schools are supposed to ensure that at least 40 per cent of pupils leave with five A* to C grades, including the core subjects of English and maths.
Last year, 195 schools were below the floor target and the number could exceed 200 this summer.
In a letter to schools setting out changes to science GCSEs, Ofqual said the qualifications were “designed to be more challenging because the previous syllabuses did not adequately test the subject content and were not sufficiently demanding”.
"Although we cannot be sure until results come in, we are expecting a small drop in achievements overall rather than anything more substantial,” the letter said.
"The picture may be different school by school."
A spokeswoman for the Department for Education said: "We want GCSEs to be high-quality, demanding qualifications comparable to those in the world's best-performing education systems.
"It is for Ofqual, the independent regulator, to ensure that standards are set appropriately in the awarding of GCSEs."
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